Roll 1 twenty-sided die. Add +9. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 6). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 8-sided die, plus 5. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d8+5 becomes 2d8+5); flat modifiers stay the same.
min 0
max 21
mean 7.35
147/20
±4.81
P(finish at 9 HP) =
48.52%
(621/1280)
0
25.00%
1
0.00%
2
0.00%
3
0.00%
4
0.00%
5
0.00%
6
8.75%
7
8.83%
8
8.91%
9
8.98%
10
9.06%
11
9.14%
12
9.22%
13
9.30%
14
0.63%
15
0.55%
16
0.47%
17
0.39%
18
0.31%
19
0.23%
20
0.16%
21
0.08%
Roll 3 twenty-sided dice and keep the highest result (this is Elven Accuracy — the half-feat that turns advantage into rolling three d20s instead of two; it only fires when you'd already have advantage). Add +9. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 6). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 8-sided die, plus 5. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d8+5 becomes 2d8+5); flat modifiers stay the same.
min 0
max 21
mean 9.99
79947/8000
±3.16
P(finish at 9 HP) =
66.20%
0
1.56%
1
0.00%
2
0.00%
3
0.00%
4
0.00%
5
0.00%
6
10.52%
7
10.74%
8
10.97%
9
11.19%
10
11.41%
11
11.64%
12
11.86%
13
12.08%
14
1.78%
15
1.56%
16
1.34%
17
1.11%
18
0.89%
19
0.67%
20
0.45%
21
0.22%