Compare strikes

Exact probabilities, no floating point. The default pair — 2d6+5 vs 3d4+4 against an 11 HP target — is the classic "variance helps when your mean is below the threshold" case: the higher-variance expression wins despite a nearly identical mean. Edit either expression or the HP to recompute live. expression syntax →

Target HP 11 Target resistance

Strike A

Roll 2 6-sided dice, plus 5.

min 7 max 17

7 2.78%
8 5.56%
9 8.33%
10 11.11%
11 13.89%
12 16.67%
13 13.89%
14 11.11%
15 8.33%
16 5.56%
17 2.78%

Strike B

Roll 3 4-sided dice, plus 4.

min 7 max 16

7 1.56%
8 4.69%
9 9.38%
10 15.63%
11 18.75%
12 18.75%
13 15.63%
14 9.38%
15 4.69%
16 1.56%
17 0.00%

Try one of these

Each preset swaps both panels above with a different pedagogically useful pair. The "lesson" line is what to look for.

Or go deeper

Concepts → Eight counterintuitive lessons in dice math: variance and kill probability, expected strikes to kill, advantage as a curve not a constant, exploding fat tails, and more.
Multi-typed damage → Splitting a fixed dice budget across types (1d8 slash + 1d4 fire) hedges against per-type resistance. Live three-slider widget for HP, slash-resist, fire-resist — watch the hedge pay off (or not).
D&D 5e → The 12 recurring 5e damage-math questions in one click each — GWM break-even, advantage curve, Magic Missile vs Scorching Ray, Strahd in N rounds.
Baldur's Gate 3 → Every common BG3 weapon's damage roll, with the build-choice deep-dives: greatsword vs greataxe, dual-wield vs two-hand, the +1 weapon question.
XCOM 2 → Per-shot distributions under the four-way outcome model (hit / crit / graze / miss) for each common XCOM 2 weapon. Squadsight aim arcs, half-cover graze math, the Run-and-Gun convolution.
Syntax reference → Every form the engine accepts, with a live example linking to its distribution. NdM, additive mixing, exploding (!), reroll (r1), advantage (kh1).