Roll 1 twenty-sided die. Add +9. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 6). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 8-sided die, plus 5. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d8+5 becomes 2d8+5); flat modifiers stay the same.
min 0
max 21
mean 7.35
147/20
±4.81
P(finish at 9 HP) =
48.52%
(621/1280)
0
25.00%
1
0.00%
2
0.00%
3
0.00%
4
0.00%
5
0.00%
6
8.75%
7
8.83%
8
8.91%
9
8.98%
10
9.06%
11
9.14%
12
9.22%
13
9.30%
14
0.63%
15
0.55%
16
0.47%
17
0.39%
18
0.31%
19
0.23%
20
0.16%
21
0.08%
22
0.00%
23
0.00%
24
0.00%
25
0.00%
26
0.00%
27
0.00%
28
0.00%
29
0.00%
30
0.00%
31
0.00%
Roll 1 twenty-sided die. Add +4. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 11). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 8-sided die, plus 15. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d8+15 becomes 2d8+15); flat modifiers stay the same.
min 0
max 31
mean 9.97
399/40
±10.16
P(finish at 9 HP) =
50.00%
(1/2)
0
50.00%
1
0.00%
2
0.00%
3
0.00%
4
0.00%
5
0.00%
6
0.00%
7
0.00%
8
0.00%
9
0.00%
10
0.00%
11
0.00%
12
0.00%
13
0.00%
14
0.00%
15
0.00%
16
5.63%
17
5.70%
18
5.78%
19
5.86%
20
5.94%
21
6.02%
22
6.09%
23
6.17%
24
0.63%
25
0.55%
26
0.47%
27
0.39%
28
0.31%
29
0.23%
30
0.16%
31
0.08%