Compare → 1d3+7 @ hit 35 crit 15 vs 1d3+4 @ hit 95 crit 25

1d3+7 @ hit 35 crit 15 vs 1d3+4 @ hit 95 crit 25

Side-by-side distributions with exact probabilities. Edit either expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page stays shareable. expression syntax →

Target HP 5 Target resistance

Strike A

Hit chance is 35% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 3-sided die, plus 7. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d3+7 becomes 2d3+7); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 13

0 65.00%
1 0.00%
2 0.00%
3 0.00%
4 0.00%
5 0.00%
6 0.00%
7 0.00%
8 9.92%
9 10.50%
10 11.08%
11 1.75%
12 1.17%
13 0.58%

Strike B

Hit chance is 95% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 3-sided die, plus 4. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d3+4 becomes 2d3+4); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 10

0 5.00%
1 0.00%
2 0.00%
3 0.00%
4 0.00%
5 23.75%
6 26.39%
7 29.03%
8 7.92%
9 5.28%
10 2.64%
11 0.00%
12 0.00%
13 0.00%

Strikes to kill 5 HP

≤ 1 35.00%
≤ 2 57.75%
≤ 3 72.54%
≤ 4 82.15%
≤ 5 88.40%
≤ 6 92.46%
≤ 7 95.10%
≤ 8 96.81%
≤ 9 97.93%
≤ 10 98.65%
≤ 11 99.12%
≤ 12 99.43%
≤ 13 99.63%

Truncated at 50 strikes — expected is a lower bound.

Strikes to kill 5 HP

≤ 1 95.00%
≤ 2 99.75%