Compare → Strike 40 @ hit 100 crit 15 csd 700

40 @ hit 100 crit 15 csd 700

Damage distribution for 40 @ hit 100 crit 15 csd 700. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Hit chance is 100% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 40. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 40 becomes 40); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 40 max 280 mean 76.00 76
P(finish at 160 HP) = 15.00% (3/20)
  • 40 85.00%
  • 41 0.00%
  • 42 0.00%
  • 43 0.00%
  • 44 0.00%
  • 45 0.00%
  • 46 0.00%
  • 47 0.00%
  • 48 0.00%
  • 49 0.00%
  • 50 0.00%
  • 51 0.00%
  • 52 0.00%
  • 53 0.00%
  • 54 0.00%
  • 55 0.00%
  • 56 0.00%
  • 57 0.00%
  • 58 0.00%
  • 59 0.00%
  • 60 0.00%
  • 61 0.00%
  • 62 0.00%
  • 63 0.00%
  • 64 0.00%
  • 65 0.00%
  • 66 0.00%
  • 67 0.00%
  • 68 0.00%
  • 69 0.00%
  • 70 0.00%
  • 71 0.00%
  • 72 0.00%
  • 73 0.00%
  • 74 0.00%
  • 75 0.00%
  • 76 0.00%
  • 77 0.00%
  • 78 0.00%
  • 79 0.00%
  • 80 0.00%
  • 81 0.00%
  • 82 0.00%
  • 83 0.00%
  • 84 0.00%
  • 85 0.00%
  • 86 0.00%
  • 87 0.00%
  • 88 0.00%
  • 89 0.00%
  • 90 0.00%
  • 91 0.00%
  • 92 0.00%
  • 93 0.00%
  • 94 0.00%
  • 95 0.00%
  • 96 0.00%
  • 97 0.00%
  • 98 0.00%
  • 99 0.00%
  • 100 0.00%
  • 101 0.00%
  • 102 0.00%
  • 103 0.00%
  • 104 0.00%
  • 105 0.00%
  • 106 0.00%
  • 107 0.00%
  • 108 0.00%
  • 109 0.00%
  • 110 0.00%
  • 111 0.00%
  • 112 0.00%
  • 113 0.00%
  • 114 0.00%
  • 115 0.00%
  • 116 0.00%
  • 117 0.00%
  • 118 0.00%
  • 119 0.00%
  • 120 0.00%
  • 121 0.00%
  • 122 0.00%
  • 123 0.00%
  • 124 0.00%
  • 125 0.00%
  • 126 0.00%
  • 127 0.00%
  • 128 0.00%
  • 129 0.00%
  • 130 0.00%
  • 131 0.00%
  • 132 0.00%
  • 133 0.00%
  • 134 0.00%
  • 135 0.00%
  • 136 0.00%
  • 137 0.00%
  • 138 0.00%
  • 139 0.00%
  • 140 0.00%
  • 141 0.00%
  • 142 0.00%
  • 143 0.00%
  • 144 0.00%
  • 145 0.00%
  • 146 0.00%
  • 147 0.00%
  • 148 0.00%
  • 149 0.00%
  • 150 0.00%
  • 151 0.00%
  • 152 0.00%
  • 153 0.00%
  • 154 0.00%
  • 155 0.00%
  • 156 0.00%
  • 157 0.00%
  • 158 0.00%
  • 159 0.00%
  • 160 0.00%
  • 161 0.00%
  • 162 0.00%
  • 163 0.00%
  • 164 0.00%
  • 165 0.00%
  • 166 0.00%
  • 167 0.00%
  • 168 0.00%
  • 169 0.00%
  • 170 0.00%
  • 171 0.00%
  • 172 0.00%
  • 173 0.00%
  • 174 0.00%
  • 175 0.00%
  • 176 0.00%
  • 177 0.00%
  • 178 0.00%
  • 179 0.00%
  • 180 0.00%
  • 181 0.00%
  • 182 0.00%
  • 183 0.00%
  • 184 0.00%
  • 185 0.00%
  • 186 0.00%
  • 187 0.00%
  • 188 0.00%
  • 189 0.00%
  • 190 0.00%
  • 191 0.00%
  • 192 0.00%
  • 193 0.00%
  • 194 0.00%
  • 195 0.00%
  • 196 0.00%
  • 197 0.00%
  • 198 0.00%
  • 199 0.00%
  • 200 0.00%
  • 201 0.00%
  • 202 0.00%
  • 203 0.00%
  • 204 0.00%
  • 205 0.00%
  • 206 0.00%
  • 207 0.00%
  • 208 0.00%
  • 209 0.00%
  • 210 0.00%
  • 211 0.00%
  • 212 0.00%
  • 213 0.00%
  • 214 0.00%
  • 215 0.00%
  • 216 0.00%
  • 217 0.00%
  • 218 0.00%
  • 219 0.00%
  • 220 0.00%
  • 221 0.00%
  • 222 0.00%
  • 223 0.00%
  • 224 0.00%
  • 225 0.00%
  • 226 0.00%
  • 227 0.00%
  • 228 0.00%
  • 229 0.00%
  • 230 0.00%
  • 231 0.00%
  • 232 0.00%
  • 233 0.00%
  • 234 0.00%
  • 235 0.00%
  • 236 0.00%
  • 237 0.00%
  • 238 0.00%
  • 239 0.00%
  • 240 0.00%
  • 241 0.00%
  • 242 0.00%
  • 243 0.00%
  • 244 0.00%
  • 245 0.00%
  • 246 0.00%
  • 247 0.00%
  • 248 0.00%
  • 249 0.00%
  • 250 0.00%
  • 251 0.00%
  • 252 0.00%
  • 253 0.00%
  • 254 0.00%
  • 255 0.00%
  • 256 0.00%
  • 257 0.00%
  • 258 0.00%
  • 259 0.00%
  • 260 0.00%
  • 261 0.00%
  • 262 0.00%
  • 263 0.00%
  • 264 0.00%
  • 265 0.00%
  • 266 0.00%
  • 267 0.00%
  • 268 0.00%
  • 269 0.00%
  • 270 0.00%
  • 271 0.00%
  • 272 0.00%
  • 273 0.00%
  • 274 0.00%
  • 275 0.00%
  • 276 0.00%
  • 277 0.00%
  • 278 0.00%
  • 279 0.00%
  • 280 15.00%
Strikes to kill 160 HP expected: 3.19 (25493/8000)
  • ≤ 1 15.00%
  • ≤ 2 27.75%
  • ≤ 3 38.59%
  • ≤ 4 100.00%

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.