Compare → Strike 2d6+15 @ AC15 +4 disadv

2d6+15 @ AC15 +4 disadv

Damage distribution for 2d6+15 @ AC15 +4 disadv. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Roll 2 twenty-sided dice and keep the lower result (this is disadvantage — imposed by long-range shots, attacking prone targets at range, and most debuffs). Add +4. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 11). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 2 6-sided dice, plus 15. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 2d6+15 becomes 4d6+15); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 39 mean 5.52 2207/400 ±9.64
P(finish at 19 HP) = 22.94% (367/1600)
  • 0 75.00%
  • 1 0.00%
  • 2 0.00%
  • 3 0.00%
  • 4 0.00%
  • 5 0.00%
  • 6 0.00%
  • 7 0.00%
  • 8 0.00%
  • 9 0.00%
  • 10 0.00%
  • 11 0.00%
  • 12 0.00%
  • 13 0.00%
  • 14 0.00%
  • 15 0.00%
  • 16 0.00%
  • 17 0.69%
  • 18 1.38%
  • 19 2.06%
  • 20 2.75%
  • 21 3.44%
  • 22 4.13%
  • 23 3.44%
  • 24 2.76%
  • 25 2.08%
  • 26 1.40%
  • 27 0.71%
  • 28 0.03%
  • 29 0.03%
  • 30 0.03%
  • 31 0.02%
  • 32 0.02%
  • 33 0.02%
  • 34 0.01%
  • 35 0.01%
  • 36 0.00%
  • 37 0.00%
  • 38 0.00%
  • 39 0.00%
Strikes to kill 19 HP expected: 4.33
  • ≤ 1 22.94%
  • ≤ 2 40.66%
  • ≤ 3 54.33%
  • ≤ 4 64.88%
  • ≤ 5 73.01%
  • ≤ 6 79.27%
  • ≤ 7 84.08%
  • ≤ 8 87.79%
  • ≤ 9 90.63%
  • ≤ 10 92.82%
  • ≤ 11 94.50%
  • ≤ 12 95.79%
  • ≤ 13 96.77%
  • ≤ 14 97.53%
  • ≤ 15 98.11%
  • ≤ 16 98.56%
  • ≤ 17 98.90%
  • ≤ 18 99.16%
  • ≤ 19 99.36%
  • ≤ 20 99.51%

Truncated at 50 strikes — expected is a lower bound.

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.