Compare → Strike 1d8+5 @ AC15 +9 disadv

1d8+5 @ AC15 +9 disadv

Damage distribution for 1d8+5 @ AC15 +9 disadv. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Roll 2 twenty-sided dice and keep the lower result (this is disadvantage — imposed by long-range shots, attacking prone targets at range, and most debuffs). Add +9. Compared against AC 15: you hit if the kept d20 face plus the bonus totals 15 or more (so the d20 needs to land on at least 6). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 8-sided die, plus 5. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d8+5 becomes 2d8+5); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 21 mean 5.36 1071/200 ±5.03
P(finish at 10 HP) = 28.23% (3613/12800)
  • 0 43.75%
  • 1 0.00%
  • 2 0.00%
  • 3 0.00%
  • 4 0.00%
  • 5 0.00%
  • 6 7.00%
  • 7 7.00%
  • 8 7.01%
  • 9 7.01%
  • 10 7.02%
  • 11 7.02%
  • 12 7.02%
  • 13 7.03%
  • 14 0.03%
  • 15 0.03%
  • 16 0.02%
  • 17 0.02%
  • 18 0.02%
  • 19 0.01%
  • 20 0.01%
  • 21 0.00%
Strikes to kill 10 HP expected: 2.66
  • ≤ 1 28.23%
  • ≤ 2 56.34%
  • ≤ 3 75.53%
  • ≤ 4 86.95%
  • ≤ 5 93.26%
  • ≤ 6 96.60%
  • ≤ 7 98.32%
  • ≤ 8 99.18%
  • ≤ 9 99.60%

Want to compare 1d8+5 @ AC15 +9 disadv against another expression? ↦ Open the comparison tool — paste this in as one side and an alternative as the other.

Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.