Diceplots

Compare → Strike 100 @ hit 75 dodge 100 refill 50 shots 4

100 @ hit 75 dodge 100 refill 50 shots 4

Damage distribution for 100 @ hit 75 dodge 100 refill 50 shots 4. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Fire 4 shots at a target with starting Luck pool 100 (refills by 50 per hit). Each shot reduces target's Luck by your hit chance (100 on a hit (vs AC 0, +0 to hit (75% chance))); when Luck drops to or below your hit chance, the next shot lands deterministically. Models Hard West's per-target Luck absorption rule — the hit/miss sequence is fully deterministic; only per-hit damage roll is stochastic.

min 200 max 200 mean 200.00 200 ±0.00
P(finish at 200 HP) = 100.00% (1)
  • 200 100.00%
Strikes to kill 200 HP expected: 1.00 (1)
  • ≤ 1 100.00%

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.