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Compare → Strike 1d4+5 @ hit 80 crit 30

1d4+5 @ hit 80 crit 30

Damage distribution for 1d4+5 @ hit 80 crit 30. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Hit chance is 80% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 4-sided die, plus 5. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d4+5 becomes 2d4+5); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 13 mean 6.60 33/5
P(finish at 6 HP) = 80.00% (4/5)
  • 0 20.00%
  • 1 0.00%
  • 2 0.00%
  • 3 0.00%
  • 4 0.00%
  • 5 0.00%
  • 6 14.00%
  • 7 15.50%
  • 8 17.00%
  • 9 18.50%
  • 10 6.00%
  • 11 4.50%
  • 12 3.00%
  • 13 1.50%
Strikes to kill 6 HP expected: 1.25
  • ≤ 1 80.00%
  • ≤ 2 96.00%
  • ≤ 3 99.20%
  • ≤ 4 99.84%

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.