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Compare → Strike 1d3+7 @ hit 35 crit 15

1d3+7 @ hit 35 crit 15

Damage distribution for 1d3+7 @ hit 35 crit 15. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Hit chance is 35% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 3-sided die, plus 7. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d3+7 becomes 2d3+7); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 13 mean 3.25 651/200
P(finish at 6 HP) = 35.00% (7/20)
  • 0 65.00%
  • 1 0.00%
  • 2 0.00%
  • 3 0.00%
  • 4 0.00%
  • 5 0.00%
  • 6 0.00%
  • 7 0.00%
  • 8 9.92%
  • 9 10.50%
  • 10 11.08%
  • 11 1.75%
  • 12 1.17%
  • 13 0.58%
Strikes to kill 6 HP expected: 2.86
  • ≤ 1 35.00%
  • ≤ 2 57.75%
  • ≤ 3 72.54%
  • ≤ 4 82.15%
  • ≤ 5 88.40%
  • ≤ 6 92.46%
  • ≤ 7 95.10%
  • ≤ 8 96.81%
  • ≤ 9 97.93%
  • ≤ 10 98.65%
  • ≤ 11 99.12%
  • ≤ 12 99.43%
  • ≤ 13 99.63%

Truncated at 50 strikes — expected is a lower bound.

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.