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Compare → Strike 1d3+4 @ hit 65 crit 10

1d3+4 @ hit 65 crit 10

Damage distribution for 1d3+4 @ hit 65 crit 10. Edit the expression or drag the HP slider — the URL updates as you go, so the page is always shareable. expression syntax →

Strike

Hit chance is 65% (a single roll against a flat probability — the XCOM / Hard West / tactical-game model, distinct from the d20-versus-AC math elsewhere on this site). Compared against AC 0: any roll except a natural 1 hits (a nat 1 always misses, regardless of bonus). A natural 20 always crits, regardless of AC. On a hit, deal 1 3-sided die, plus 4. On a crit, double the damage dice (the 1d3+4 becomes 2d3+4); flat modifiers stay the same.

min 0 max 10 mean 4.03 403/100
P(finish at 5 HP) = 65.00% (13/20)
  • 0 35.00%
  • 1 0.00%
  • 2 0.00%
  • 3 0.00%
  • 4 0.00%
  • 5 19.50%
  • 6 20.22%
  • 7 20.94%
  • 8 2.17%
  • 9 1.44%
  • 10 0.72%
Strikes to kill 5 HP expected: 1.54
  • ≤ 1 65.00%
  • ≤ 2 87.75%
  • ≤ 3 95.71%
  • ≤ 4 98.50%
  • ≤ 5 99.47%
  • ≤ 6 99.82%

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Why some expressions kill faster than others with the same mean is the kind of thing the concepts pillars work out — start with variance and kill probability if this strike's distribution looks surprising.